Climate Negotiations at COP29: Financing a Livable Planet for All?

A Common Home Spotlight by ECo Faculty Network member Dr. Marisa O. Ensor
December 7, 2024

The 29^th Conference of the Parties (COP29) to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) was held in Baku, Azerbaijan from November 11 to 24, 2024, wrapping up two days after it was originally scheduled to conclude. With consistent evidence of the worsening climate crisis and global tensions rising setting the stage, COP29 unfolded amidst considerable difficulties. Billed as the “Finance COP,” the main objective of COP29 was for governments to agree on a new climate finance goal, the New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQD), which is to replace the previous target of allocating $100 billion per year from the Global North to the South. Ultimately, the agreed proposal requests wealthy nations to contribute $300 billion per year by 2035 to help poorer nations transition their energy production and usage and adapt to climate change. With COP30, to be held later this year in Belém, Brazil, now on the horizon, discussions will continue throughout 2025 with the goal of a clear, outlined path toward effective climate action and sustainable development for a livable planet for all.

What Are the COPs and Why Do They Matter?

A COP – short for “Conference of the Parties” – is a meeting where all signatory countries – those that are “party to,” in legal terms – a specific agreement or treaty come together to review its implementation, make decisions, and address ongoing issues related to its goals. Examples include the COPs of the Convention on Biological Diversity, the Chemical Weapons Convention, and the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora (CITES), in addition to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).

Parties to the UNFCCC have committed to take voluntary actions to prevent “dangerous anthropogenic [human-caused] interference with the climate system.” Described as “crucial in the battle against climate change,” UNFCCC COPs are the foremost global fora for multilateral discussions of climate change matters. During these meetings, nations have negotiated groundbreaking and legally binding climate treaties, such as the Kyoto Protocol in 1997 and the Paris Agreement in 2015. Held under the auspices of the UN, Climate change COPs have grown exponentially in size over the past two decades. They are currently among the largest international meetings in the world, attended by dignitaries and Heads of State and Government, as well as tens of thousands of government delegates, intergovernmental organizations, representatives of civil society, nongovernmental organizations, and the global news media. They take place annually, unless the Parties decide otherwise, and the first one was held in Berlin, Germany in March, 1995. The host country of each COP normally rotates among the five United Nations regional groups – i.e., the African Group, the Asia-Pacific Group, the Eastern Europe Group, the Latin American and Caribbean Group (GRULAC) and the Western European and Others Group (WEOG).

It has been almost 30 years since representatives from 160 nations adopted the Kyoto Protocol on December 11, 1997, and 20 years since it entered into force on February 16^th, 2005. Heralded as a historic landmark in the international fight against climate change, and the most significant accomplishment of COP3, the Kyoto Protocol is an international treaty that set legally binding targets to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Currently, there are 192 parties to the Kyoto Protocol. Yet, the world’s most prolific greenhouse gas (GHG) emitters have consistently failed to stem their output. Estimates by the World Resources Institute conclude that the top three GHG emitters — China, India, and the United States — contribute 42.6 percent of the total emissions, while the bottom 100 countries only account for 2.9 percent. Seeking to correct this dangerous trend, climate UNFCCC COPs offer an opportunity to raise the global level of attention to the threat of climate change. Their increasingly diverse composition also reflects a recognition that high-level negotiations are, on their own, insufficient, requiring the participation of the private sector, civil society, industry, communities, and individuals, if the world is to adequately tackle the climate emergency.

Worsening Global Conditions

Over three decades have passed since the original UNFCCC treaty was negotiated in 1992. In the interim, the changing climate has had increasingly destructive effects on societies and ecosystems. Research confirms that, for some particularly vulnerable regions, warming must be limited to less than 2^oC (3.6^oF) to reduce the risk of grave damage. The warmer the planet gets, the more deleterious effects of climate change we will experience; every 0.1°C increase in the average global temperature magnifies the risk of more severe storms, lengthier and more intense heatwaves, more frequent catastrophic flooding and droughts, and accelerated sea level rise, among other adverse consequences. Globally, 2024 was the hottest year on record, and global warming temporarily hit 1.5^oC, with global temperatures remaining at record levels. Furthermore, we have transgressed six out of the nine planetary boundaries, indicating that Earth is now well outside of the safe operating space for humanity.

There is mounting evidence that climate impacts are intensifying faster than expected, with climate disasters devastating communities all over the world, offering a glimpse into what awaits if we fail to take immediate action. As noted by NASA scientists, “the effects of human-caused global warming are happening now, are irreversible for people alive today, and will worsen as long as humans add greenhouse gases to the atmosphere.” In 2024, widespread flooding killed thousands and left millions at the brink of famine across Africa; deadly landslides caused by unusually heavy rainfall compounded by deforestation buried villages in Asia and the Indo Pacific. Protracted drought in South and Central America dried out rivers and livelihoods, while rain-triggered floods in the United States and Spain resulted in hundreds of deaths, and caused economic losses worth millions.

COP29 unfolded against a backdrop of toppling temperature records and unprecedented extreme weather events that exacerbate existing conflict risks, with mounting losses and damages on people and nature. Destructive impacts are unequally distributed and not comprehensively addressed by current adaptation and mitigation efforts. Multiple climate hazards are increasingly likely to occur simultaneously in what is known as compound climate events – e.g., heatwaves fostering wildfires that reduce vegetation cover, increasing the likelihood of soil erosion and mudslides during subsequent heavy rainfall – contributing to heightened insecurity across sectors and regions. For many countries and communities, especially those in the developing world, these damages are often both irreversible and unquantifiable. They include loss of lives and livelihoods, degradation of landscapes and seascapes, coastal erosion, imperiled biodiversity and ecosystem services, and threats to cultural identity, bio-cultural heritage, and Indigenous knowledge.

Contentious Negotiations

Against this rapidly deteriorating background, the COP29 climate summit in Baku nonetheless marked a significant breakthrough. For the first time in 15 years, the UNFCCC Parties set a long-term financial target, reached after two weeks of strenuous and often contentious wrangling. Described as a “floor, not a ceiling,” the agreed NCQG also includes a non-binding target to mobilize $1.3 trillion annually from both public and private sectors by 2035. Developed nations are expected to lead these efforts, with developing countries encouraged to contribute voluntarily. Despite tripling the previous overall amount of climate finance, representatives from developing countries nevertheless insisted that the final NCQG amount was significantly lower than the actual need. In an impassioned speech, India voiced rejection to the final $300 billion deal, calling it an insultingly small amount that will not support meaningful climate action. Recent estimates suggest that climate finance requirements will surge to $8.5 trillion annually by 2030 and $10 trillion annually from 2031 to 2050.

It is also worth noting that COP29 agreements backtracked in some critical areas – for example, on COP28’s breakthrough promise to transition away from fossil fuels. Protestors that 1,773 fossil fuel lobbyists were present at COP29 – making them the fourth largest contingent at the event (a proportional increase from COP28 in Dubai from 2.8 percent to 3.4 percent of all attendees). Furthermore, the NCQG did not include any dedicated funding for either adaptation – the process of adjusting to the effects of climate change to reduce vulnerability and avoid or minimize harm – or for loss and damage – the negative consequences of climate change that are not preventable and go beyond what affected populations can adapt to.

There was also significant backsliding on human rights, gender equity, and Indigenous Peoples rights within the negotiated texts, contributing to the at times acrimonious tone of the discussions. The Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS) walked out of the negotiations at one point, expressing frustration at the insufficient solutions being discussed. Indigenous leaders from Brazil, Australia, the Pacific, and Eastern Europe created an Indigenous Peoples’ Troika to complement the COP Presidencies’ Troika – a collaborative arrangement among the Presidencies of COP28 in the UAE, that of COP29 in Azerbaijan, and the upcoming COP30 in Brazil. This new Troika is meant to ensure that Indigenous leadership is an integral part of planning for COP30 and beyond.

Next Steps and Calls to Action

Responding to deteriorating conditions, most of the parties to the original UNFCCC treaty signed on to the Paris Agreement in 2015. Under the Paris Agreement, 196 countries agreed to act to prevent Earth’s temperature from rising more than 2°C above pre-industrial levels, aiming at keeping it below 1.5°C. Despite intensified climate diplomacy, annual greenhouse gas emissions have increased by 44 percent since the UNFCCC was adopted in 1992. The latest climate assessment by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) concludes that greenhouse gas emissions must be reduced by 60 percent by 2035. Failing to do so would put the world on track for global temperatures to exceed the 2.5 ^o C limit – a future scientists consider disastrous. The challenges outlined in previous sections underscore a fundamental reality – while UN Conferences of the Parties are necessary for global climate negotiations, they fall short of the urgent and transformative action we need. The final outcome of COP29 – a package of decisions known as the Baku Climate Unity Pact – demonstrates that countries are still committed to working together on climate action, even if imperfectly. Nevertheless, more ambition is essential, with robust, concerted action needed in the run-up to COP30 in Belém, Brazil.

Indicative of these challenges was the record number of issues that were tabled under Rule 16 of the UNFCCC. Rule 16 is applied when delegates cannot reach an agreement on an item being negotiated, which is thereby automatically included in the agenda of the next ordinary session. Negotiations that did not reach a consensus at COP29 were postponed until June 1-14, 2025, for re-deliberation at the Bonn Climate Change Conference – an annual event that occurs mid-way between the COPs – making this meeting one to watch. The deferred agenda items included setting each countries’ updatedNationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). A key component of the Paris Agreement, NDCs are climate action plans that countries create to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions and adapt to the impacts of climate change. Each country is requested to outline and communicate their post-2020 climate actions every five years. The new NDCs, due in 2025, must be stronger than the previous round and reflect the “highest possible ambition”.

The new year 2025 will test countries’ willingness to scale up public climate funding and align wider finance with the Paris Agreement’s goals. While not exclusively climate-centered, the Fourth International Conference on Financing for Development is also considered a major milestone in the global climate effort. This event, scheduled for June 30 – July 3, 2025, in Seville, Spain, will focus on mobilizing financial resources to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals, with climate finance as a key component.

The Road to Belém

With the conclusion of COP29 in Baku, the world’s attention now shifts to Brazil, at a time when the urgency for more ambitious climate action has never been greater. COP30, to be held in Belém, in the heart of the Brazilian Amazon, later this year, has already identified its main themes, including:

reducing greenhouse gas emissions.
adaptation to climate change.
climate finance for developing countries.
renewable energy technologies and low-carbon solutions.
preserving forests and biodiversity.
climate justice and the social impacts of climate change.

As the global community sets itself upon the “road to Belém,” charting a path for collective action on these issues will be essential to mitigating and responding to the adverse consequences of climate change, and accelerating progress toward a safer, more sustainable future for all.